Trump’s plan to discuss Taiwan arms sales with Xi rattles Asian allies

President Donald Trump has sparked alarm in Taipei and among Asian allies by saying he would discuss American arms sales to Taiwan with Xi Jinping when the US and Chinese leaders meet in Beijing this week.

Ahead of departing Washington on his first visit to China since 2017, Trump said he would discuss the issue with Xi, breaking decades of precedent on not consulting with Beijing on US arms exports to Taiwan.

“President Xi would like us not to, and I’ll have that discussion,” Trump said this week.

Trump’s comment has sparked concern among US allies, according to several people familiar with the matter.

“Across the Indo-Pacific, allies are deeply concerned that President Trump will bend to Xi’s request to delay arms sales to Taiwan,” said Mira Rapp-Hooper, former senior director for east Asia at the National Security Council in the Biden administration.

“Not only would this give China a veto over critical security assistance to Taiwan, it would suggest that for the right price, any partner’s fate may be for sale.”

The issue threatens to hang over the two-day summit that will include talks on Iran, trade and investment. It comes five months after the US administration unveiled a record $11.1bn arms package for Taiwan. The US is also compiling another package worth at least $14bn.

Beijing has pushed the US to change its “declaratory policy” to say that it “opposes” Taiwanese independence. That has also alarmed Taiwan and the US’s Asian allies because it would replace more neutral language that Washington “does not support any unilateral change to the status quo in the Taiwan Strait”.

Secretary of state Marco Rubio last week said US policy had not changed. But the assurance has failed to satisfy some Republicans and Democrats.

When Republican senator Mitch McConnell on Tuesday asked Pete Hegseth if he could reassure Taiwan — and Japan and the Philippines — that their security would “not be on the table” at the summit, the defence secretary declined to provide what is normally a routine assurance.

Sarah Beran, a former top US diplomat who has managed several presidential summits with Xi, said that while China had been floating the idea of a language change, it did not need Trump to say anything new.

“From Beijing’s point of view, pushing out a narrative that US policy is in question is an effective approach,” Beran said. “It undermines Taipei, creates uncertainty in the region, and is less risky than opening a transactional negotiation with the President on language that could end up being transitory.”

Several people familiar with situation said they were more worried that Trump could give ground on arms sales.

“China has been very clear that they are not happy with the last arms sale package for Taiwan and the potential large package on the docket. Xi will probably ask Trump to delay, or whittle down, the next package,” said Patricia Kim, a China expert at the Brookings Institution.

Trump delayed a mandatory weapons export notification to Congress in February after pressure from China. Jeanne Shaheen, the top Democrat on the Senate foreign relations committee, urged Trump to notify Congress before his trip, saying it would send “a very strong message that China should keep its mitts off Taiwan”.

Beran said it would be important to see if Trump negotiated over arms sales because he was expected “to frame the meeting as groundbreaking and put a high premium on preserving stability”. Xi is expected to make a reciprocal visit to the US later this year.

“Xi may tell Trump that another record arms sale package is a red line for China and would not be conducive to leader-level engagement,” Beran added. “It would be very significant if Beijing believes it secured agreement from the president to delay sales for an extended period.”

Zhao Minghao, professor at the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, said those in China hoping for a change in language on Taiwan would be disappointed.

“The US side will continue to strengthen military ties with Taiwan and the People’s Liberation Army . . . will also continue to prepare for the worst-case scenario,” Zhao said. “Maybe one good thing we could see would be a kind of a ‘reciprocal restraint’ with the US reducing arms sales to Taiwan in exchange for China conducting less military activity across the Strait.”

Shao Yuqun, head of the Institute for Taiwan, Hong Kong & Macau Studies at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, said she did not think that Xi would personally ask Trump for language “opposing” Taiwanese independence.

“President Xi doesn’t need to make the request, because Trump knows what Beijing wants on this issue, so if he hopes to gain more in other areas — such as trade — he will articulate a position on this issue in his own words,” she said. “If President Xi makes the request, it would instead require a trade-off.”

The summit will include two meetings, a state banquet and a tour of the Temple of Heaven.

Trump is expected to urge Xi to curb support for Iran. They are also likely to discuss a “Board of Trade” to manage commerce in non-sensitive sectors. The US is hoping that China will sign deals to buy Boeing aircraft and soyabeans. A US official on Sunday said it was unclear if the sides would extend the trade war truce struck in October.

Trump will be joined by more than a dozen US chief executives, including Apple’s Tim Cook, Tesla’s Elon Musk and Kelly Ortberg from Boeing. But observers said expectations for the summit were not particularly high.